We’re used to political junkies analyzing and griping about polls. But in Virginia, the complaint is on stronger ground, at least looking back at the 2013 and 2014 elections, when the Republican statewide candidate finished significantly higher than the final polling results. One can even throw in Bob McDonnell’s 2009 landslide; the final RealClearPolitics average had him winning by 13.4 percentage points, and he went on to win by 17.5 points.
Today’s gubernatorial election in Virginia will let us know if pollsters have adjusted for the state’s quirks and changing demographics and response trends. Democrats can reassure themselves that the 2016 presidential results in the state were more or less in line with the final poll results.
This morning, the RealClearPolitics average shows ...
We’re used to political junkies analyzing and griping about polls. But in Virginia, the complaint is on stronger ground, at least looking back at the 2013 and 2014 elections, when the Republican statewide candidate finished significantly higher than the final polling results. One can even throw in Bob McDonnell’s 2009 landslide; the final RealClearPolitics average had him winning by 13.4 percentage points, and he went on to win by 17.5 points.
Today’s gubernatorial election in Virginia will let us know if pollsters have adjusted for the state’s quirks and changing demographics and response trends. Democrats can reassure themselves that the 2016 presidential results in the state were more or less in line with the final poll results.
This morning, the RealClearPolitics average shows ...
Editor’s note: This piece originally appeared in the October 30, 2017, issue of National Review.
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