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John Hirschauer
Making the click-through worthwhile: the yield curve inverts amid drama on Wall Street; new developments in the Jeffrey Epstein saga; and, at long last, John Hickenlooper drops out of the Democratic primary.
Are We Heading towards A Recession?
The yield curve inverted yesterday, with yields on two-year bonds rising above yields on ten-year bonds for the first time since 2005. The inversion of the yield curve has been among the most reliable postwar predictors of a recession, though some analysts are attributing yesterday’s events to a confluence of global and seasonal variables that don’t necessarily portend a domestic economic decline. Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 800 points yesterday, reflecting market anxiety about the inverted yield curve; the Trump administration’s trade dispute with the Chinese and the threat of retaliatory tariffs; as well as fluctuations in global and domestic interest rates. The ever-acerbic President Trump weighed in on Twitter:
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