On the menu today: Happy Halloween. Despite Donald Trump’s planned visit today, there’s not much evidence that New Mexico is a swing state. In fact, it’s time to throw buckets of cold water on a bunch of states that some partisans are hoping to be swing states — New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota (although hilariously, adding Governor Tim Walz to the ticket has Kamala Harris running a few percentage points behind Joe Biden’s finish in the Gopher State in 2020). No, the race still comes down to the big seven — where Trump is looking good in the Sun Belt states and maybe okay in Pennsylvania, although the early vote in most of these states has a lot more women than men, while Kamala Harris is about one percentage point away from a solid victory in the Electoral College.
As of this morning, more than 59 million Americans have voted in the 2024 election. According to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voter tracker, 11.3 million of those folks are registered Democrats, and 10.5 million are registered Republicans. (Remember, 25 states report ...
